SamNav
SamNav Archive 2013 Upside risk
SA-2013-03 · Entry 0006Public essay

Upside risk

The post argues that many angel investors misunderstand the power law of returns, often focusing excessively on mitigating downside risk rather than recognizing the greater risk of missing out on exceptional investments. It suggests that investors should prioritize reasonable pricing and align incentives with founders to capitalize on potential high returns, rather than fixating on unfavorable terms that can hinder opportunities.

Published 2013-03-25 2 min read 359 words 3 topics
Before you set out 3/5 Navigation SeverityCartographic IncidentThe route is real, but the signage gets weird enough to deserve a field note.
Excerpt · opening linespulled from source
Everyone claims that they understand the power law in angel investing, but very few people practice it. I think this is because it’s hard to conceptualize the difference between a 3x and a 300x (or 3000x) return. It’s co
SamNav stores no post bodies. Only enough to orient you - the rest lives at the source.
Original source
Read the full essay on Sam Altman's blog
blog.samaltman.com/upside-risk
Opens the original in a new tab · last reachable 2026-06-05
Go to source

Nearby Entries

Within range by shared topic and coordinate - not by an algorithm.

SA-2013-09 2SeverityPoorly Marked

What to do if a bubble is starting

The post discusses the potential early stages of a startup bubble, highlighting signs such as rising valuations and increased investor activity. It emphasizes the importance of financial preparedness for startups, advocating for a focus on profitability, frugality, and strategic decision-making. The author suggests that while bubbles can be unpredictable, adopting these practices is beneficial regardless of market conditions.

3 MIN
<MARKETS><RISK>
↗ shares 3 topics
SA-2014-07 2SeverityPoorly Marked

Black Swan Seed Rounds

The post discusses the author's experiences with seed investing, highlighting that successful investments often come from contrarian choices rather than popular, competitive rounds. It emphasizes that many high-performing companies initially appeared to be poor ideas, suggesting that founders should not be discouraged by a lack of oversubscription in their seed rounds, as conventional wisdom can mislead investors.

3 MIN
<STARTUPS><MARKETS>
↗ shares 3 topics
SA-2015-03 3SeverityCartographic Incident

Bubble talk

The post critiques the narrative of a tech bubble, arguing that focusing on market corrections detracts from meaningful discussions about innovation and company performance. The author proposes three forward-looking bets on the future valuations of specific tech companies, emphasizing the importance of innovation over market speculation. He invites investors to engage in a bet to challenge his views.

3 MIN
<MARKETS><STARTUPS>
↗ shares 3 topics